Dr Surin Pitsuwan,

ASEAN Secretary General

Ambassador Barry Desker,

Dean, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,

Nanyang Technological University,

Excellencies,

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,

1.         Many of us are familiar with conventional warfare and the threat of terrorism or other forms of asymmetric warfare waged by non-state actors around the world.  Today, the world is also grappling with challenges arising from climate change, energy security, pandemics and most recently, food security. These challenges pose similar security concerns as that arising from traditional threats.

2.         Conventional security threats involve identifiable entities acting in specific ways and points in time. Unconventional threats to our sense of security and wellbeing, on the other hand, are posed by enemies that we cannot so easily target and neutralise.  Rather, they arise from factors that have complex linkages to the wellbeing of the human population. In the place of physical defence mechanisms, non-traditional threats call for a deep understanding of how the causal factors and their consequential linkages can affect our living environment.

Impact of Climate Change on Our Environment

3.        Climate change is one of the most serious of the non-traditional threats that the world faces today. Rising water levels, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent occurrences of extreme weather pose not only threats to the physical environment of affected regions, but also have secondary impacts on the global economy, and can trigger geo-political instability and conflicts over scarce resources.

4.         We have seen in Australia how a 6-year drought has wreaked havoc on agricultural production, contributing to rising food prices worldwide. Concerns have been raised over the melting of glaciers that can cause sea levels to rise and result in severe floods. There are also potentially adverse effects on river systems. China, South Asia, and Indochina depend on the melt water from glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau for the water in their great rivers – the Ganges, Indus, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers among them. In the longer term, if the glaciers retreat due to global warming, water availability in these areas could be significantly reduced. The consequences could be serious for the vast populations that depend on these great rivers for their water needs.

5.         The effects of large-scale extreme weather events and long-term climate change could well be humanitarian and refugee crises if countries cannot cope. They could lead to social upheavals, displacement of populations across borders, and civil strife. This in turn can exacerbate already poor living conditions, particularly in regions dependent on agriculture or facing water shortages, and tip already fragile economic and political systems into political instability. 

6.         We have seen with Hurricane Katrina that even a developed country’s systems can be overwhelmed by a major extreme weather event. While no single hurricane can be directly attributed to climate change, there have been suggestions that warmer oceans could lead to an increase in hurricane intensity.

7.         Long-term climate change, too, can have a profound impact on a region’s stability. The drought in the Sahel region of Africa diminished resources such as water and arable land, creating tensions between groups that previously co-existed peacefully, most prominently between the Arabs and Africans in Darfur, in the Sudan. As UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon wrote last year, “The Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change”.

Transboundary environmental and health security

8.         Climate change also has unpredictable consequences if it worsens transboundary environmental and health problems. We have already seen how transboundary air pollution is a regional health hazard during the bad haze episodes in recent years affecting large parts of South East Asia including Singapore. There were also periods when the poor air quality reduced the visibility for aircraft operations not just in domestic but international aviation.

9.         One of the largest transboundary threats to security for the Asian continent in recent years has been pandemics, in particular the rise of the avian influenza virus. As we saw with SARS, increasing globalisation has also meant increased cross-border travels, and increased chances of cross-border transmission of viruses. Avian flu has not only resulted in the loss of human lives, but also severely affected the economy. The World Bank had estimated the economic damage to be approximately 2% of global GDP. The immediate economic impact was felt on poultry exports and tourism, but the secondary impact is that by reducing globalisation and travel, pandemics have the potential to disrupt the free flow of people, goods and ideas that Asia depends on for economic growth. Similarly, vector-borne diseases such as dengue could also represent a transboundary threat. If nation-states could control the transmission of these diseases within their geographical boundaries with a robust vector control programme, such threats can be localized and contained. However, if countries do not get their act together, these diseases can spread easily across the borders. The recent local transmission of chikungunya fever in Singapore bears this out. Aside from mounting effective domestic strategies, Singapore also recognizes the need to strengthen regional collaboration in the fight against dengue. We are currently co-hosting the Asia Pacific Dengue Programme Managers Meeting with the WHO Western Pacific Regional Office, which will serve as the platform for WHO member states to develop the strategic plan for dengue prevention and control. This will be a key step towards strengthening dengue prevention and control capability across the region.

10.       These transboundary problems will have to be addressed through constructive engagement between countries to identify solutions, and the sharing of best practices and technology. But when this does not take place, it could adversely affect the relationship between states. If climate change results in shortages in water supply and food production, for example, this could lead to political problems between supplier and consumer nations, as well as between countries seen as major emitters of greenhouse gases and countries most severely affected by climate change.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation

11.       With the significant potential risks posed by climate change, it will be crucial for us to take pre-emptive steps early. One crucial measure in addressing climate change is adapting to its potential impact, thereby ensuring that our systems ranging from food production to urban environments are more resilient to climate change.

12.       In Singapore, we have commissioned a scientific study involving the Tropical Marine Science Institute and international experts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to understand the potential effects and impact of climate change on Singapore. We have put in place various measures that will help Singapore to adapt to climate change, and we are also looking ahead to further assess areas of adaptation to improve upon.

13.       At the ASEAN level, there is a need for ASEAN to build up regional capacity on understanding vulnerability to climate change as well as on adaptation.

Mitigating Greenhouse Emissions and Enhancing Energy Security

14.       Another crucial measure in addressing climate change is to mitigate global greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be easy. While there is broad consensus that something needs to be done, there is little agreement on how this will be implemented and who will bear the responsibility and cost. At the same time, global demand for energy resources is set to increase by 57% from 2004 to 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, powered by growing demand from China and India.

15.       Energy security and climate change are interrelated issues, and nations will need to adopt strategies that would meet their energy needs and cause minimal disruption to their economic growth, while at the same time reducing carbon emissions. The challenge is managing the integration and tradeoffs of energy security and climate change.

16.       Energy security requires fuel diversification. Clean and renewable energy sources are possible sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels. However, much research and development is needed to make renewable energy sources such as solar cost-competitive with current fossil fuel sources. Biofuels are sometimes seen as another carbon-neutral alternative. However, if produced in an unsustainable way, biofuels can encourage deforestation and thus the destruction of carbon sinks. This is counterproductive.

17.       As we have seen from recent food price hikes, the use of biofuels made from food crops can also limit the amount of land for food supply, leading to increase in food prices. Meanwhile, nuclear energy carries with it safety risks, the danger of proliferation, and the possibility that terrorists could get hold of nuclear material. One of the best solutions is to conserve energy and increase efficiency of use, so as to reduce the amount of oil and fossil fuel that countries need to import. This in turn will reduce emissions at the same time.

Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies

18.       Climate change like the other non-traditional threats such as energy supply and demand transcend territorial borders of nations, and require coherent international responses with cooperative efforts among nations. At the same time, individual countries will have to develop unique initiatives that are tailored to their situations, by exploiting technology and implementing sound policies.

19.       The Centre for Non-Traditional Security or NTS Studies is a timely initiative under RSIS to spearhead the study of non-traditional security issues within the region. For almost a decade, RSIS successfully conducted and managed a programme on Non-Traditional Security (NTS), dealing with policy research and analysis into non-traditional issues in the region such as water resources, irregular migration, environmental security, transnational crimes, poverty and health security.

20.       Its research projects spanned the development of conceptual and methodological tools to understanding the causes of NTS issues, how they were defined as security threats, how governments and non-state actors have addressed them, and what policy responses have been or should be formulated to tackle them. The NTS work at RSIS thus combines conceptual innovation, empirical research, and policy-relevant analysis and findings.

21.       RSIS leadership in establishing networks with other like-minded think tanks in the wider Asian region has led to the establishment in January 2007 of the Consortium of Non-Traditional Security Studies in Asia (NTS-Asia) which serves not only as an intellectual hub for NTS in Asia but also as an architecture for regional cooperation into these issues. The new RSIS Centre for NTS Studies will bring together 14 research institutes and think-tanks from Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and South Asia.  Nested in Nanyang Technological University (NTU), the Centre is also well placed to leverage on the science and engineering faculties of NTU.

22.       I am confident that, with regards to non-traditional security issues such as climate change, energy security, and pandemics, the Centre will raise awareness of the importance of such issues, address the needs of governmental policies, as well as conduct incisive and illuminating research in this important field. I congratulate NTU and RSIS on the official launch of the Centre today, and my Ministry looks forward to constructive collaborations in the years to come.

23.       Now, it is my pleasure to declare the official launch of the RSIS Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies.